This is the second part of a look at the state legislative districts for the state of Florida and how they performed in the 2012 Presidential Election. The first part, covering the State Senate, can be found here. Click that link to see the recent history of Florida’s gerrymandering and the effects of the 2010 Fair Districts amendments.
This post will cover the State House districts drawn by the legislature. The lines have a clear partisan edge, much like the State Senate districts. This post, Florida’s New State House Map, covered the statistics of the districts when they were initially introduced.
While the Republicans drew the lines to favor themselves, they failed to anticipate that Obama would actually win more seats in 2012 than he did in 2008. While Obama had a narrower Florida margin in 2012, he gained a net 2 extra state house seats. The Florida Division of Elections does not calculate results by legislative districts. In order to perform these 2012 calculations I used my statewide precinct shapefile (see post here: Florida Statewide Precinct Map) and added the formatted precinct-level election results. The low-resolution image below shows the 6000+ precincts of Florida colorized by the percent of the vote Obama and Romney got of the total vote cast. (Note at the time of the state senate posting I was not factoring in third parties).
Then I added the lines of the new House districts and calculated the total Obama and Romney vote in the precincts surrounded by the lines for each district. An example of a zoom in of the results with the House lines over them is below.
The results show Obama winning 55 of the 120 state house seats.
Democrats won in the districts of metro urban areas and got especially strong in the southeast. Obama’s 55 district wins is two more than his 53 wins in 2008. This was thanks to a dramatic shift in district allegiance. Six districts that voted for Obama in 2008 switched to the Romney while eight districts that voted for McCain switched to Obama
Of these six districts that switched to the Republicans, all were overwhelmingly white. The racial average of all six districts was 79% white. Meanwhile the racial average of the eight districts that went to Obama was 70% Hispanic; only one of the eight was majority white.
The map below shows the shift for Obama between 2008 and 2012. Positive numbers indicate a positive growth in Obama’s support since 2008, while the negative numbers indicate a reduction of support. The green districts indicate the district hardly shifted in support either way.
The largest cluster of Obama improvement is Miami-Dade; where Obama got an unprecedented 62% of the vote thanks to a growth in support from Hispanics.
Hispanic voters are the major driver of growth in Obama’s support since 2012. As districts grow in Hispanic percent, Obama’s support increased.
All districts over 40% Hispanic saw Obama gain from his 2008 percent. This positive correlation holds even with Cuban voters. Overall Cuban’s still voted Republican. However, the Democratic growth in support among younger Cubans and those born on the continent versus the Island have allowed Democrats to make significant gains in heavily Cuban districts. Obama made large gains in the three districts that are majority Cuban (all three are overwhelmingly Hispanic) and actually won one of them. The scatterplot of Obama’s gains based off the percent a district was overall Cuban is below.
It is worth noting that Obama’s strong gains in heavily Cuban districts are also influenced by the fact those districts are up to 80% Hispanic and that Obama’s growth in support with non-Cuban Hispanics is a factor in the growth. However, polling has shown Obama’s ability to win over Cuban voters and they would have to have shifted in order to account for the large swings in support — especially in the majority-Cuban districts. There is considerable debate over who won the Cuban vote in 2012; but even the most pessimistic assessment indicates Obama continued to gain ground with Cuban voters in 2008. See this article for more information: Who won the Cuban vote?
Estimates on how Cuban-Americans voted in past elections appear to depend on who is conducting the exit polling; but the general consensus is that Gore got around 25% of the Cuban vote, Kerry got 29%, Obama in 2008 got 35%, and Obama in 2012 got 47%. The chart below shows the steady growth in Cuban support for Democratic candidates.
While Obama has made gains on a wave of Hispanic support, his drop in support has come from predominantly white districts. All of the districts Obama lost from 2008 were over 70% white. The scatterplot below shows Obama’s change in support based off how white a district was.
Only a pocket of white districts actually gave Obama an increase in support. Obama lost districts in Alachua, Palm Beach, and Broward County; all because their white populations shifted away from the President.
While Obama came close to winning a majority of the state house districts, the Republican gerrymander is seen more clearly when observing the Presidential and Gubernatorial Election. Democrat Alex Sink only won 47 districts in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election despite only losing by 1%.
Obama won eleven districts that Sink did not. This highlights a major point with the Republican Gerrymander. While it is possible for a Democrat to win a majority of the state house seats, it is much easier for Republicans to not only win a majority, but to have many additional swing and lean dem seats to pad that majority. Several districts that went for Obama did so by narrow margins and are always vulnerable to Republican wins. Democrats must defend all those seats before they can make inroads into narrow-Romney or narrow-Scott districts to get that majority.
To highlight this point, I categorized the districts into categories based off the 2012 Presidential Election Results.
- Super Safe Obama: Over 80% support for the President
- Safe Obama: Between 60% to 79% for the President
- Likely Obama: Between 55% to 59% for the President
- Lean Obama: Between 52% to 55% for the President
- Swing: Between 48% to 52% for either candidate
- Lean Romney: Between 48% to 45% the President
- Likely Romney: Between 45% to 41% for the President
- Safe Romney: Between 40% to 21% for the President
The pie chart below shows the volume of districts that fall under each category
Districts that were 48% Obama or less totaled 61 of the 120 districts, a majority. Meanwhile seventeen districts are considered swing and vulnerable to either party. For Democrats to win a majority of the state house they must win all the swing seats and win a Romney seat or two. Democrats could at best win a narrow majority while Republicans can easily swing back into a 2/3 majority like they had before 2012. The map is clearly drawn in the Republican’s favor.
While the map is Republican-favored, there is still plenty of Democratic opportunity. Right now Democrats only hold 44 seats, well below Obama’s 55. Democrats hold two districts won by Romney, but Republicans hold thirteen Obama districts.
This is most prevalent in Miami-Dade, where Obama gained ground in Hispanic districts that had not previously voted Democratic. In many of those Hispanic districts the Democratic Party failed to field candidates, or the candidates had little funding compared to their Republican counter-parts.
The map below shows a more detailed look at party holdings for the districts based on how they voted in the 2012 AND 2008 Presidential elections.
Right now there are six districts that voted for Obama in 2008 AND 2012 that are held by Republicans. Democrats should ramp up recruitment efforts in those districts, as well as the Hispanic Miami-Dade seats in order to building on Democratic momentum.
Democrats have a good deal of ground to cover on the way to a majority. Republicans drew a Republican-favored map to be sure, however, the map still gives Democrats an outside chance at an eventual majority. In the meantime Democrats must work to make gains in seats they should control already. Factors like incumbency will no doubt effect district’s competitiveness. For example, District 37 voted for Obama both times, but is occupied by Republican Mike Fasano. Fasano is a moderate Republican with a strong base of support and would be a tough candidate to beat. However, without Fasano, the district would become a major Democratic target.
Republicans in other states have drawn much worse partisan maps. Republicans in Florida were limited by the Fair Districts amendments, resulting in a modestly Republican map. Democrats will have to work hard to get to a majority, but that goal is a real, albeit moderate, possibility.